If there is a high probability that results are due to chance, can you conclude that the treatment was the reason?

If there is a high probability that results are due to chance, can you conclude that the treatment was the reason?

• A. Yes, because chance is not involved.
• B. If the results are significant, you can conclude treatment caused the effect.
• C. You cannot.
• D. Only if the p-value is less than 0.01.

Answer: (C)

When you’re assessing whether a treatment caused an effect, you can’t claim the treatment is the reason if the results could easily have happened by random variation. A high probability that results are due to chance means there isn’t enough evidence to attribute the observed difference to the treatment. In statistics, that corresponds to not rejecting the idea that there is no treatment effect. To really support causation, you’d rely on a strong study design that controls for other factors—random assignment, proper control groups, sufficient sample size, and replication. A small p-value might suggest the observed effect is unlikely under no-treatment, but it doesn’t prove causation by itself. Conversely, a high chance of randomness offers no basis to credit the treatment with causing the result. So, you cannot conclude the treatment was the reason.

When you’re assessing whether a treatment caused an effect, you can’t claim the treatment is the reason if the results could easily have happened by random variation. A high probability that results are due to chance means there isn’t enough evidence to attribute the observed difference to the treatment. In statistics, that corresponds to not rejecting the idea that there is no treatment effect.

To really support causation, you’d rely on a strong study design that controls for other factors—random assignment, proper control groups, sufficient sample size, and replication. A small p-value might suggest the observed effect is unlikely under no-treatment, but it doesn’t prove causation by itself. Conversely, a high chance of randomness offers no basis to credit the treatment with causing the result. So, you cannot conclude the treatment was the reason.